Predicting the 2016 Boston Marathon

I went there, but I didn't see it?!? No prediction from Nate Silver and the 538 crew on the probabilities of winning the Boston Marathon. Not much on the internet either. So I decided to take a break from my investment analysis and build my own proprietary Boston marathon prediction model. What else would I do on a gorgeous Sunday afternoon in New England?

Combining all of the masterful insight I have from the one marathon I've actually run (Reykjavik 2011) as well as weighted averages of recent Boston Marathons, other recent marathons, runner personal bests, two ranking sources and a little bit of personal analysis, I am proud to unveil my 2016 Boston Marathon predictions for the men's division. Probably a little crude, but maybe I'll keep going with this and add the women's and wheelchair races next??

Good luck to all the runners tomorrow! BOSTON STRONG!